(WASHINGTON D.C.) — Lower U.S. corn ending stocks and no change to South American crop production were some of the key highlights in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from the USDA.
According to the June WASDE report, USDA lowered 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks 50 million bushels, down to 1.750 billion bushels while leaving U.S. 2025-26 soybean ending stocks unchanged at 295 million bushels. They also lowered 25-26 U.S. wheat ending stocks to 898 million bushels, down 25 million from the May report. 2025-26 U.S. corn and soybean production was left unchanged with only a minor tweak to U.S. Hard Red Winter wheat production estimates for the 2025-26 crop year. Old-crop U.S. corn ending stocks were also lowered to 1.365 million bushels, down from the May estimate of 1.415 million. Old-crop U.S. soybean and wheat estimates were left unchanged from last month.
For South American production, many traders expected an increase in some of the estimates particularly for Brazilian corn. However, USDA left both Argentine and Brazilian corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged from May.
Overall, global corn and wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 fell while global soybean stocks saw a slight rise from May. Global corn stocks came in at 275.24 million metric tons, down from 277.84 mmt in May. Wheat stocks fell to 262.76 mmt, down from 265.73 mmt in May. Soybean stocks globally saw an uptick to 125.3 mmt, slightly above the May estimate of 124.33 mmt.
The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Pork production is unchanged from the previous month. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 26, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2026. Broiler production is raised on recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data. Egg production is lowered on recent layer inventory data, as well as recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in commercial laying flocks. Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2025 and 2026.
USDA also issued a note at the top of the June WASDE report indicating once again that the “report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication and assumes that these policies remain in place for the duration of the forecast period.”
View the June WASDE Report from USDA here: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report
(AUDIO) Listen to report analysis from Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, in the Market Talk Midday Commentary segment found below:
Please remember the risk of trading futures and options can be substantial.
