(WASHINGTON D.C.) — After not providing a report in October due to the government shutdown, USDA on Friday returned with a November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. USDA projected a slight reductions in overall corn production and yield along with overall soybean production an yield.
Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186.0 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 90.0 million acres. Total corn supply is 144 million bushels higher as larger beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report.
Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 48 million, on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected down 0.5 bushels to 53.0 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the September 30 Grain Stocks report and reduced production.
U.S. corn exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion reflecting shipments to date. Inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel.
U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak U.S. export season. Further, since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the United States no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters.
U.S. soybean crush is unchanged and ending stocks are forecast down marginally. The U.S. season average soybean price for 2025/26 is raised $0.50 to $10.50 per bushel. The soybean meal price is raised $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks, with no change to use. Supplies are raised on greater production, up 58 million bushels to 1,985 million, on a record all wheat yield based on the September 30 Small Grains Summary. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00 as larger global supplies reduce price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. Brazil’s 24/25 corn production went up just 1 MMT from September to 136 MMT this month. There were no changes to the 25/26 estimates for South America.
USDA did increase 2024/2025 Brazil and Argentina soybean production and increased 2024/2025 Brazilian corn production. The 24/25 Argentina soybean production went up from 50.9 million metric tons in September to 51.11 MMT this month while the 24/25 Brazilian soybean production when up from 169 MMT in September to 171.5 MMT this month.
USDA did provide a note at the beginning of the November WASDE that said “due to lapse in government funding from October 1 through November 12, some U.S. data sources that are typically used were not available for the November 2025 WASDE. Changes to the U.S. balance sheets continue to reflect all U.S. government data available at the time of publication, but this month, in some cases, that information was limited.”
View the full WASDE here: https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/commodity-markets/wasde-report
USDA also at the same time on Friday, released a backlog of daily export flash sales activity that was withheld due to the government shutdown. That included 332,000 tons of soybean purchases for China during the shutdown period. You can view the details here: https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/private-exporters-report-sales-activity-bangladesh-china-egypt-japan-mexico-philippines
***AUDIO*** Hear reaction and analysis of the latest WASDE Report with Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, in the Market Talk Midday Commentary below. Please remember the risk of trading futures and options can be substantial.
