The University of Missouri Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute has released the 2026 International Agricultural Market Outlook.
The projections presented here are from the January simulation of the FAPRI U.S. and International models based on market and policy information available at that time. Macroeconomic projections are S&P forecasts from December 2025. Since that time there has been significant disruption to agricultural markets, input markets, and the global economy from military action in the Middle East that is not included in these projections.
The projections from this model are from the deterministic FAPRI model that produces a point estimate for each year. Volatility in agricultural markets will mean that the actual outcomes for a particular year could differ greatly. For the equivalent U.S. publication (FAPRI-MU Report #01-26) output from the stochastic models are used which means that there might be small differences between the numbers there and those reported here. More detailed tables of the International Outlook that include historical data are available online.
Some key results:
• Brazil and Argentina are projected to continue to expand crop area, albeit at a slower rate. In other parts of the world increases in production will come from yield improvements.
• Margins have been tight in cereals markets where prices have fallen from peaks in 2022 and 2023, but input costs remain stubbornly high. Global feed use continues to rise on increased meat (especially chicken) production. In China, the rate of increase of feed use of grains slows, and imports are flat.
• In oilseed markets, increased mandated use of biomass-based diesel (BBD) supports vegetable oil markets, but strong production keeps nominal prices flat. China continues to be an important market for soybeans with growing demand.
• Beef prices have been strong in several key markets, as production in the U.S. stalls with strong demand, and the dairy herd shrinks in the EU.
• Developments in animal disease outbreaks such as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and New World Screwworm (NWS) in North America will influence production.
• Dairy markets internationally saw pressure on prices in 2025 as production growth outstripped demand. Stronger than expected production of milk in many major producing countries, along with higher component content of milk saw prices fall. Oceania prices were more resilient than those in the U.S. and Europe that saw significant reductions.
• Demand for dairy products is expected to keep growing and to result in a recovery in prices around the world. Increasing incomes, growing middle classes, and the development of cold chains and markets should keep dairy products as a popular source of protein.
• Ethanol production is projected to grow steadily, mostly in Brazil where RenovaBio spurs growth of 2.9% per year, with increased use of corn as a feedstock. U.S. production also grows but at a slower rate.
• BBD production increases as well, with the U.S., Indonesia, and Brazil all contributing. Demand continues to be mandate driven, with the majority of production consumed domestically, but exports from Malaysia are projected to grow.
Read the full report here: https://fapri.missouri.edu/publications/2026-international-agricultural-market-outlook/
