Surging Imports Set the Stage
Brazilian beef exports to the United States are surging, according to monthly data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, underscoring a growing reliance on imported protein even as federal officials intensify scrutiny of the global meatpacking industry.
Brazilian meat packers shipped $795 million in beef to the U.S. in the first three months of this year, up 21% from the same period a year ago. The surge follows a record-setting 2025, when Brazilian beef shipments to the U.S. topped $1.75 billion, a 39% increase over 2024.
Rollins Sounds Alarm on Foreign Ownership
That rapid growth in imports comes as Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins appeared alongside Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche Monday, sharply criticizing foreign ownership in the meatpacking sector.
Rollins denounced Brazilian packer ownership for being “affiliated not just with corruption, but also cartels and, as recent as last week, slave labor, which is bad enough on its own, but it’s also to the detriment of America’s great independent ranchers and consumers.”
“Further, when just four firms control a market, suppliers and food prices are rocked heavily when disruptions occur,” she continued. “The last few years have proven that the protein sector especially, and therefore our food security, is especially at risk when global pandemics, animal disease outbreaks, and facility issues like fires, labor disputes, food-borne illnesses, and cybersecurity attacks occur.”
This is especially impactful considering the record-low cattle herd size of about 86.2 billion head in America.
“That is the lowest since the nineteen fifties, and this year we’re looking to be slightly down again,” said Rollins. “In the past decade alone, we’ve lost over seventeen percent of our cattle ranchers. More than a hundred thousand ranches across this country are no more.”
Years of Pressure Behind Herd Decline
The low herd size can be attributed to a variety of factors— a stack of pressures that have built up over several years.
One of the biggest drivers has been drought, especially across major cattle regions like Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. When pasture conditions deteriorate and hay becomes scarce or expensive, producers are forced to cull cows—sometimes aggressively.
Feed costs have also played a major role. High prices for corn and soybeans—driven by global supply disruptions and weather—made it more expensive to keep cattle on feed. For many operations, especially smaller ones, margins got too tight to justify expansion.
Then there’s the liquidation cycle. Over the past couple of years, producers sent more cows and heifers to slaughter instead of holding them back for breeding. That boosts short-term beef production but shrinks the long-term herd.
Interest rates and input costs haven’t helped either. Higher borrowing costs, along with rising expenses for fuel, labor, and equipment, have made expansion riskier.
Another factor is time. Cattle production simply doesn’t turn quickly. A heifer retained today won’t produce a calf for roughly two years, and that calf takes additional time to reach market weight. So even if conditions improve, herd recovery is slow by nature.
DOJ Investigation Targets Market Concentration
Blanche emphasized the Trump administration is actively investigating the meatpacking industry for potential anti-competitive behavior, signaling a broader federal focus on consolidation and foreign influence within the protein supply chain.
Since the 2025 executive order, Blanche said the DOJ “has been actively investigating with a review of over 3 million documents. Hundreds of industry participants, including ranchers, cattlemen, producers, and processors, have been contacted and many interviewed as part of this ongoing investigation.”
Agri Stats Case Signals Broader Crackdown
The Justice Department’s Antitrust Division filed a proposed settlement Thursday to resolve the United States’ claims against Agri Stats Inc. (Agri Stats) for unlawful information sharing of price, output, and costs among competing meat processors.
“This is like the mathematician’s worst nightmare in terms of monopoly behavior,” said Blanche. “Basically, what the companies in this concentrated industry were doing was individually sending in data on everything, consumers, production, everything in between.”
As alleged in the complaint, this one-sided information exchange reduced competition and enabled systematic price increases and coordinated decisions about how much meat to produce.
According to the DOJ, the proposed settlement brings an end to important anticompetitive features of Agri Stats’ information exchange. If approved by the court, the proposed settlement will require the Indiana-based company to:
- Stop providing any sales reports or non-public pricing information, which chicken, pork, and turkey processors have systematically used to identify opportunities to increase prices;
- Stop reporting production, cost, and labor data at either the company or facility level, which enabled competing processors to adjust output, pricing, or both based on near-total visibility into their rivals’ operations;
- Make the vast majority of information that Agri Stats distributes available to all interested domestic purchasers on reasonable and non-discriminatory terms, eliminating the asymmetry of its prior information sharing and increasing market transparency;
- Adhere to restrictions on the timeliness of the information that Agri Stats shares;
- Report to a court-approved monitor selected by the Department of Justice who will be responsible for reporting on and ensuring compliance with the proposed settlement; and
- Establish an antitrust compliance program to ensure data security, whistleblower protections, and mandatory reporting of any future potential violations of the antitrust laws.
- Agri Stats’ subsidiary Express Markets Inc. (EMI) will be permitted to continue to provide its price reports in substantially the same manner as it has in the past. Because EMI’s price reports are less detailed and provided to all interested parties, not only meat processors, they were not the focus of the case.
Blanche called the announcement a “historic settlement that will directly affect the prices of proteins like chicken, pork, and turkey.”
Ongoing USTR Trade Battles with Brazil
At the same time, Brazil remains under multiple “Section 301” investigations led by the Office of the United States Trade Representative over alleged trade violations dating back to last summer.
After launching a case in July 2025, USTR officials held a hearing in September examining Brazil’s trade practices, including concerns tied to anti-corruption enforcement and illegal deforestation. At that time, tariffs on Brazilian goods reached as high as 76% before being reduced to 15% following a U.S. Supreme Court decision in February.
Labor and Environmental Concerns Persist
Meanwhile, scrutiny of Brazil’s beef sector extends beyond trade policy. Private non-governmental organizations have long raised concerns over illegal deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, intimidation of Indigenous communities, and allegations of forced labor tied to cattle production.
On April 29, Brazilian prosecutors filed lawsuits against JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, seeking nearly $24 million over allegations the company sourced cattle from ranches where workers were held in “slavery-like conditions.”
At the same time, USTR held a separate two-day hearing in late April examining forced labor risks across 60 countries, including Brazil. While testimony heavily focused on China, no witnesses specifically tied forced labor allegations directly to Brazilian beef exports during that proceeding.
Brazil maintains a public registry of employers linked to forced labor practices, commonly referred to as the “Dirty List.”
In its formal submission to USTR, the Brazilian government stated it “strongly rejects the allegations” of forced labor and urged U.S. officials not to make such findings. The filing instead emphasized Brazil’s trade relationship with the U.S. and its investment footprint.
The Confederação da Agricultura e Pecuária do Brasil (CNA), representing Brazil’s agricultural sector, also defended the country’s legal framework, stating, “The Brazilian agricultural sector operates under one of the broadest legal standards for defining forced labor among major global exporters.”
CNA further argued Brazil is not a source of trade distortion tied to forced labor and pointed to strict penalties for violators.
White House adviser Peter Navarro added another layer to the debate, saying he remembers “vividly” when the U.S. imposed tariffs on Brazil. “The beef lobby, represented by Brazilians, quietly threatened the White House and we saw that beef that should otherwise be on the counters sold in American grocery stores, going to China,” Navarro said.
High-Level Diplomacy Shakes Markets
If that fire-hose level of activity isn’t enough to give producers and consumers whiplash, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva quietly met with Trump at the White House Thursday, rattling cattle futures markets.
The counterparts avoided going before the press at their high stakes bilateral meeting in what was supposed to be an on-camera appearance before U.S. and Brazilian journalists. Instead, Trump updated the masses via a Truth Social post, indicating the meeting went “very well.”
Underscoring the impact of business leaders potential influence over policy decisions, Reuters reported Brazilian billionaire Joesley Batista, one of the owners of meatpacker JBS, played a key role in arranging the meeting between Trump and Lula. According to plane tracking data from FlightAware, a jet owned by the family’s J&F company, which controls JBS, was due to fly from Colorado to Washington on Wednesday.
Traders React to Policy Uncertainty
In speaking with American Ag Network’s Susan Littlefield on Cattle Chatter Thursday, market analyst Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek noted the most recent updates are “feeding directly into what we’re seeing in the cattle futures market right now.”
He explained part of what drove the market lower Thursday could most likely be attributed to traders acting on fears of what this meeting could mean for beef supply in the U.S. If trade barriers were removed, an influx of Brazilian beef could pressure prices lower.
That concern isn’t hypothetical. Imports are already rising sharply. With Brazilian beef shipments surging and federal officials signaling closer scrutiny of foreign-owned packers, the market is trying to sort out what happens next.
On one hand, more imports could mean more beef supply and potential pressure on prices. On the other hand, any policy action—whether it’s tariffs, restrictions, or antitrust moves—could tighten supply instead.
Kooima said that push and pull is a big reason why futures have been so volatile.
Packers are in a tough spot right now. “It’s May. This is the month when a packer always makes money,” said Kooima.
While this month is typically a strong profit window for packers, margins have been unusually tight this year. While some packers are stepping in early to try and secure cattle because they think prices could move even higher, others are holding back, hoping for a break in the market.
On top of this, there are also a few unusual factors at play. A plant in Fort Morgan, CO remains on strike, which could be tightening supply more than the market is fully accounting for.
At the same time, boxed beef prices are not showing the kind of seasonal strength traders normally expect this time of year. Even with those headwinds, the cash cattle market has been extremely strong, with trade around $260—historically high levels.
Kooima says that’s a key signal. Market conditions suggests that real, physical demand for cattle remains solid, even as the futures market reacts to outside pressure.
Food Security and Industry Consolidation in Focus
During a question and answer portion of the presser, Rollins declined to directly address whether the administration would pursue breaking up foreign-owned meatpackers or require divestment but emphasized broader priorities.
“The goal is to preserve a way of life of rural America, to ensure our food security is absolute, that the importance of being able to feed ourselves in this country and not to rely on other countries again, it’s absolute,” she said.
Ultimately, Rollins says consolidation in the agriculture industry isn’t limited to meatpacking. “Whether it’s seeds and fertilizer and other inputs, the consolidation of agriculture in America has continued unabated for decades, and it is now time to take a very hard look and begin onshoring and reshoring, as the President has so eloquently stated, so much of what we do and produce in America.”
Imports Climb While Exports Struggle
Even as scrutiny intensifies, U.S. beef imports overall continue to climb. Total imports reached $4.5 billion through March, up 28% from a year ago, following a record $13.75 billion in 2025.
By comparison, U.S. beef exports totaled $9.3 billion last year, down nearly 11% from 2024, and are already off 13% in the first quarter of 2026—highlighting a widening gap between rising imports and weakening export performance.
Incentives Offered to Expose Antitrust Violations
Blanche stressed the importance of the DOJ’s whistleblower rewards program.
“I want to remind everyone and anyone in the industry that if you have information about antitrust crimes, about price fixing, bid rigging, market allocation, or even procurement fraud, the Department of Justice wants to hear from you,” Blanche said. “Through our whistleblower rewards program… you can be financially rewarded for coming forward with information about this behavior… if the information you provide helps us secure a criminal penalty in excess of one million dollars, you can be entitled to receive fifteen to thirty percent of the money that we recover. So whether you’re a farmer, a purchaser, a processor, you can help protect food security in America by reporting these types of violations and potentially criminal conduct.”
Anyone with information about anticompetitive conduct in agricultural industries or any other violations of the antitrust laws is encouraged to contact the Antitrust Division’s Citizen Complaint Center at 1-888-647-3258 or antitrust.complaints@usdoj.gov. Information about anticompetitive practices in livestock and poultry markets can also be submitted to the USDA’s and Justice Department’s Agricultural Markets Enforcement Partnership at www.farmerfairness.gov.
