China is clamping down on fertilizer exports to protect its domestic market, a number of industry sources said, putting an additional strain on global markets that were already grappling with shortages caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving Iran.
China remains one of the world’s largest fertilizer exporters, shipping more than $13 billion worth of product last year. Historically, the country has used export controls to stabilize domestic prices and ensure supply for its own agricultural sector. Now, those same policies are intensifying concerns across global supply chains.
Shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trade route, account for roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer supply. With that corridor effectively constrained by conflict, additional export restrictions from China are compounding an already fragile situation. In mid-March, Beijing banned exports of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends and certain phosphate varieties, according to sources who spoke with Reuters.
The move has not been formally announced by Chinese officials, but Bloomberg News reported earlier this week that the restrictions are already in effect. Combined with existing bans and quotas on products like urea, only a limited number of fertilizers — with ammonium sulfate among the few products still available for export — remain available for export.
As a result, between half and three-quarters of China’s fertilizer exports could now be restricted. Reuters estimates that this could impact as much as 40 million metric tons of product, significantly tightening global availability.
“This pattern is consistent: China restricts supplies rather than coming to the rescue during global tightness,” said Matthew Biggin, a senior commodities analyst at BMI.
“The export restrictions exist because of their tight domestic balance – they’re prioritising food security and insulating their domestic market from price shocks.”
China’s actions come at a time when multiple governments are moving to secure domestic supplies of key inputs affected by the conflict, including refined fuels and fertilizers. These protectionist measures are contributing to higher prices and increasing volatility in global agricultural markets.
International urea prices have already climbed roughly 40% compared to pre-war levels. Within China, urea futures are trading near a 10-month high, reflecting strong domestic demand and tightening supply.
Fertilizers play a critical role in crop production, and sustained price increases could influence planting decisions worldwide. Farmers facing higher input costs may reduce application rates or shift to crops requiring less fertilizer, potentially impacting global yields and food supply.
Several countries remain heavily dependent on Chinese fertilizer exports. Data from the International Trade Center shows China supplied roughly one-fifth of fertilizer imports for Brazil, Indonesia, and Thailand last year. That share climbed to about one-third for Malaysia and New Zealand, while India sourced around 16% of its fertilizer imports from China.
According to Reuters analysis of Chinese customs data, between half and 80% of those export volumes are now restricted.
“Buyers were hoping China would step in and fill the supply gap, but this decision will only tighten supplies further,” a New Delhi-based fertilizer company official said.
India, which relies heavily on imports for key fertilizers like urea and diammonium phosphate, has already asked China to issue export quotas to help stabilize supply.
Uncertainty remains over how long the restrictions will last. The Philippines said this week that China had indicated fertilizer exports would not be restricted, though Chinese officials have not publicly confirmed that position.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred questions to other agencies, while the General Administration of Customs, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Commerce have not responded to requests for comment.
At a fertilizer conference in Shanghai attended by Reuters, multiple industry representatives said they do not expect the restrictions to be lifted before August, after China’s peak export season from June through August.
Producers are closely monitoring government signals following the spring planting season, when domestic demand pressures may ease slightly.
In December, a state-linked fertilizer association had already urged producers to suspend exports of phosphate fertilizers through August, signaling that current restrictions may be part of a longer-term strategy.
“Most folks who follow this very, very closely are expecting them to continue to extend the export bans,” said Caitlin Welsh, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“China is so reluctant to do anything that would increase the price of grains, especially animal feed, domestically.”
