(WASHINGTON D.C.) — On Tuesday, USDA projected higher soybean supplies, crush, exports and lower ending stocks while calling for lower supplies or corn and wheat in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for the month of May.
The 2026/27 soybean crop is projected at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million from last year’s crop, reflecting trend yield and higher harvested area. Along with higher beginning stocks, supplies are 188 million bushels above the 2025/26 marketing year. Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 130.4 million tons, up 4.2 million, as higher soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower seed output is partly offset by lower peanut and cottonseed production.
U.S. soybean crush for 2026/27 is projected at 2.750 billion bushels, up 120 million from the 2025/26 forecast on favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock. Total U.S. soybean oil demand is forecast to increase 7 percent in 2026/27, with higher domestic use partly offset by lower exports. Strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, supported by EPA’s Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027, lifts soybean oil use for biofuel to 17.8 billion pounds, up 3.6 billion from 2025/26. In contrast, soybean oil exports are expected to fall as expanded domestic demand limits the volume available for foreign markets.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 310 million bushels, down 30 million from the revised 2025/26 forecast. The 2026/27 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.40 per bushel, compared with $10.40 in 2025/26. The soybean meal price is forecast at $310 per short ton, down $5. The soybean oil price is forecast at 70 cents per pound, up 7 cents.
The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to supply, total use, and ending stocks with higher expected prices. The corn crop is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6 percent from a year ago on declines to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be down 3.5 million. The yield projection of 183.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Larger beginning stocks partially offset the forecast reduction in production, resulting in total corn supplies declining 2 percent to 18.1 billion bushels.
Total U.S. corn use for 2026/27 is forecast to fall 2 percent relative to a year ago on reductions to domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast flat at 7.0 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is projected down to 6.1 billion bushels on smaller supplies and higher prices.
U.S. corn exports for 2026/27 are forecast to decline 5 percent from a year ago to 3.2 billion bushels. U.S. share of world trade is expected to decline modestly but remain above the average seen over the past several years. In absolute terms the U.S. remains the largest exporter of corn by a wide margin despite higher exports from competitor countries such as Brazil and Ukraine. With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2026/27 ending stocks are down 185 million bushels from last year. Stocks would represent 12.1 percent of use, down from 13.0 percent the prior year but above the average of the last 5 years. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents.
The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, lower domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2025/26. Wheat supplies are forecast down from last year with reduced production more than offsetting larger beginning stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year on reduced harvested area and yield.
The all-wheat yield, projected at 47.5 bushels per acre, is 5.8 bushels lower than last year’s record yield. The first survey-based production forecast for 2026/27 winter wheat is down 25 percent from last year to 1,048 million bushels, primarily on sharply reduced Hard Red Winter production.
Total U.S. 2026/27 domestic use is lower on reduced feed and residual use reflecting smaller supplies while food use is unchanged from 2025/26 at 960 million bushels. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels on reduced exportable supplies and higher U.S. prices, down 135 million from revised 2025/26 exports. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks are 18 percent lower than last year at 762 million bushels. The projected 2026/27 season-average farm price is $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year on a lower stocks-to-use ratio and a higher projected U.S. corn price.
USDA noted at the top of the May WASDE that this report presents USDA’s initial forecasts for the U.S. and world crop supply and demand and U.S. prices for the 2026/27 marketing year. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2026 forecasts of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairy products. Due to spring planting still underway in the Northern Hemisphere, and several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, the forecasts are highly tentative. Forecasts for U.S. winter wheat area, yield, and production are from the May 12 Crop Production report. The March 31 Prospective Plantings report is used for planted acreage for other U.S. crops. The 2026/27 harvested acreage and yield forecasting methods are noted in each table.
In South America, USDA increased Argentina’s corn harvest 7 million metric tons (MMT) from last month to now stand at 59.0 MMT while also boosting Brazil’s corn harvest 3 MMT to 135 MMT this month. USDA left soybean production for both Argentina and Brazil unchanged in May.
Read the full report here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0526.pdf
